Utilities across the United States are gearing up for a potentially 'historic' El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years, bringing warmer temperatures to the Pacific Ocean and disrupting weather patterns. The anticipation is palpable, with a 61% chance of an El Niño emerging between May and July, and a one in four chance of it being 'very strong', according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This would be a 'historically strong' event, according to Erik Smith, technical leader in the energy systems and climate analysis group at EPRI.
The focus on resilience in the utility sector is prompting proactive measures to minimize the impact of weather disruptions. San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) is closely monitoring the El Niño, with its five in-house meteorologists tracking the event weekly and updating operations accordingly. The utility is preparing for high heat, increased air conditioning use, and potential hardware overheating.
SDG&E's distribution planning system identifies circuits that could be stressed by high heat and takes action to fix them. This is a routine task leading into summer, but the potential impact of the El Niño makes it even more critical. The utility is also monitoring coastal flooding, as strong El Niño conditions can elevate sea levels and increase heavy rainfall in the San Diego area, requiring maintenance of drainage systems and low-lying substations.
In the Pacific Northwest, the concern is different. El Niño could exacerbate existing droughts, impacting hydroelectric resources. A heatwave last month caused snow to melt earlier than usual, depleting snow reservoirs and raising concerns about power supply during peak demand in the summer. Seattle City Light is operating more conservatively to store more water in reservoirs, but acknowledges that this strategy doesn't distinguish El Niño-driven droughts from others.
The variability of El Niño is a key consideration. Brian D'Agostino, SDG&E's VP of wildfire and climate science, emphasizes the need to prepare for the worst while acknowledging the uncertainty of forecasts. The 2022-2023 El Niño, for instance, brought flooding rain across southern California, but the utility had invested in resilience measures, which proved valuable despite the rain not materializing.
Rahul Dubey, co-founder and CTO of Rhizome, an AI-powered risk assessment platform, advises utilities to consider extreme scenarios. By running different scenarios and preparing for the most extreme ones, utilities can better quantify the potential impact of events like El Niño and invest in long-term resilience. This approach covers a wide range of weather patterns and ensures that utilities are prepared for a variety of outcomes.
In conclusion, the preparation for a 'historic' El Niño is a complex and challenging task, requiring utilities to balance the need for resilience with the uncertainty of future weather patterns. By embracing a scenario-based approach and focusing on extremes, utilities can better navigate the potential disruptions and ensure a more resilient energy infrastructure.
